Contents
What is a Black Swan event?
Black Swan events are unforseen and outlier events.
In Chapter 1.4 of my book ImaginingPossibilities for Music Learning and Teaching, I suggest that music educators should engage in futures thinking and develop curriculum understanding to be nimble and flexible in the face of rapid change, including potential Black Swan events.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007) explains that Black Swan events have the following attributes (Listen to Taleb explain what a Black Swan event is)
- First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
- Second, it carries an extreme impact.
- Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
Resources on Black Swan events
- Black Swan Theory (Wikipedia)
- The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbably – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Black Swan Events and Education
- Higher Ed’s Next Black Swan? Preparing for the next low-probability/high-impact event. – Joshua Kim (Inside Higher Ed)
